FYI: The Origin Story of the Proverb: In like a lion, out like a lamb.

Just a week ago there was a chance of snow, now there’s a chance of tornados. To quote Seinfeld: What’s the deal with that?

• Chance of Tornados today (Monday 3/16/26): ~100%. But not 100% of people will see one, just ~100% probability that one will occur in the higher risk areas. This is impossible to predict. Someone, somewhere in eastern VA, will experience a twister, but we can only guess at probabilities and where the largest chance of experiencing one might happen. We can also estimate the timing of the worst weather and how severe it might be.

• Timing: Virginia Beach: around 1:00-4:00 pm, and again between 6-8 pm after the atmosphere reloads (cools down, sun coms out, heats back up). Check out the images below. These are probabilities. It could happen anytime.

• I like this overall map. It shows the potential Tornado threat (thanks Dupage College). It’s highest (red) at 18Z (1pm), 19Z (2pm), and 00Z (7pm). And highest right near us.

• Here’s 2:30-4:30 pm. VB is right in the warpath.

  

• And again at 7pm as the atmosphere “reloads” & the cold front passes through.

  

• Here’s the overall threat level for Virginia from Noon today to 6AM Tuesday.

  

  Educational Information

• What do you need for a Tornado to form?

• VERTICAL INSTABILITY: Hot air meeting cold air. That occurs with a cold front passage. March, April, and the corresponding fall months have the greatest extremes of temperature on either side of the front, meaning the highest chances of VERTICAL INSTABILITY (air moving up and down). Air is moving South to North in general, and this is a powerful cold front, so the air is moving very fast.

• HORIZONAL INSTABILITY: You need rotation, like a miniature hurricane. Hurricanes are massive, slow, and you can seem them coming for days. Tornadoes are small, quick, and form just as quickly as they die off, making predicting them tough. That’s why probabilities are given. Today, there’s a high amount of wind shear. The first few thousand feet off the ground, the wind is turning about 36 degrees. Tornados need 30-60 degrees of spin.

• ENERGY: You need wind shear (horizontal and vertical vorticity) but you also need a lot of energy. That’s why they don’t occur in winter, cold air can’t hold much energy. But warm air can. We measure it in a term called CAPE Convective Available Potential Energy. CAPE today is 1074 J/kg — let’s just say that is strong enough for tornado formation and some nasty thunderstorms. CAPE goes as high as 4000, though, just as a reference.

• A LOW Cloud Deck: Tornados have to touch ground, so it helps when the ground isn’t that far from the clouds. Today it’ll be around 350 feet, like a Norfolk Skyscraper. Pretty low. Tornadoes need less than 1000 feet.

So we need WIND SHEAR (Vertical plus Horizontal Instability to get that turning motion), Energy from our cold front (CAPE), and a low cloud deck (as low as 350 ft).

For those true weather geeks, I use this diagram, called a SKEW-T diagram to help determine these parameters. Think of it like an EKG machine. At the bottom right, it even prints the diagnosis, like an EKG machine: TORNADO. This is at 19Z, 2:00 pm. Zulu time is 5 hours ahead of us, so 19Z is 1900 Zulu, 7pm Zulu, so 2:00 pm here.

For nostalgia’s sake, a couple pics from the Haversham Close area tornado April 30, 2023. These are so hard to predict. I live 3/4 of a mile away and had no damage. Yet this entire neighborhood is still recovering. Ultimately, the damage really depends on where the population density is also. Many tornadoes occur where no one lives (Great Plains, Midwest). Just a shout out to the National Weather Service who sounded the Tornado Warning alert. Not a single loss of life. Incredible!

One of the coolest radar signatures of a live tornado. The one from 4/30/23. Note the areas where the red meets the blue/green. That’s the Doppler signature of a tornado. Winds moving fast coming toward and away from the radar site. The meeting of the colors indicates a tornado, at least one in the air. Max: EF3.

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I can’t believe I’m writing this when it’s 70 degrees outside, expected to be 75, then a cold front will crash through and drop our temps into the low 30’s before it’s back to 60 and sunny again tomorrow. But that’s March. So, what’s really happening today?

• Chance of Snow: (Of seeing snow): 60%. It’ll be warm for snow (about 36 degrees) which is hard to overcome. The only chance to see snow is if it falls at a heavy rate and doesn’t melt in time at the lowest temperature point for the afternoon, at least 36-37 degrees. Anything warmer and we’ll just see windy, cold rain. But there’s a decent chance of “seeing snow.”

• Snowfall prediction as of now: I agree with the models that about 3/4 of an inch of snow will fall from the clouds. Will it make it to the ground and stick? It might make it to the ground if it falls fast enough and temps are 37 degrees or lower. It will not stick. Ground temperatures have been too warm and won’t fall below freezing. Best chances are small brush exposed to the air which might have a dusting if the snow is heavy enough. If you lived at 500 feet, literally at the top of a Norfolk skyscraper, you have a better chance of seeing snow.

• Chance of school getting let us early: 0%. Happening after school lets out.

• Chance of a 2-hour delay Friday: 0%. Nothing will stick, temps tonight above freezing.

• When? around 4-6 pm. Rush hour. Just be careful for a quick burst of wet snow falling, but not sticking. Might gnarl traffic.

• Prove it…Ok….Weather Modeling time. Several of the most counted on models predicting about the same thing, but this is not going to stick, this is just how much will fall from the clouds, up to an inch’s worth of quick-to-melt flakes. It will come down hard and fast and be done within two hours.

  Each Model Below has the Cursor on Virginia Beach. Again, around 4-6 pm.

That’s it. I don’t see anything on the horizon but if I do, you’ll be the first to know.

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• A local CoCoRaHS observer measured about 2.5 inches total through mid-February 2026.

• Long-range seasonal summaries put the winter around ~4.2 inches for the season to date (preliminary / incomplete data).

• Most individual events were minor (generally ~1–2” or less each) near the coast because of mixing and marine air.

✅ That lines up with what you’ve seen operationally: several threats, but the coastal boundary layer kept big totals away.

🧊 How that compares to last winter

• Winter 2024-2025: ~16.8 inches (including the February 2025 ~10–12” blockbuster — heaviest since 1989).
  ➡️ So this winter is way below last year.

📉 Climatology context

Typical Virginia Beach seasonal snow: ~5–6 inches (order of magnitude).
So 2025-26 is:

• Below normal

• Nowhere near a top-tier snow winter

🧭 Bottom line

Winter 2025-2026 total (so far): ~2–4 inches
➡️ A low-snow coastal winter for VB.

Time for the Groundhog to see its shadow and Spring to begin. Nothing in the long range models suggests a snowstorm is possible out to 384 hours. As much as I hate to say it, I think our chances for snow will have to wait until next winter.

I’ll be around because I'll report on the next coolest thing in weather: hurricanes. We get plenty of scares and the occasional glancing blow. I’ll be here to update you on hurricane development and any risk to Virginia Beach.

Enjoy the break. Hurricane season starts June 1st, but doesn’t really get going until mid July, and Virginia Beach doesn’t really get involved until August 1st-Oct 1st when the water near us reaches it warmest values and the wind shear dies down. I’ll be back then! Without looking, can you name the hurricane below…HINT: happened in the last 10 years.

Hurricane Dorian: September 2019

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Beware the wind with the system: this is a true northeaster with power outages, debris, falling branches, coastal flooding, etc. If we had more snow we’d have a blizzard, this is a blizzard-light (minor snow)

In addition to the snow breezy and windy conditions are expected across VA and NC. Wind gusts inland and across the peninsulas could be as high as 30 to 35 mph during the system. While across the coastline and parts of SE VA wind gusts could reach 45mph. Wind Advisories  have been issued from 7pm tonight until 10am Monday morning for parts of SE VA and Eastern Currituck County. Overall, these breezy and windy conditions could result in down trees and
damage to powerlines. They could also result in near whiteout conditions across the Northern and Middle Neck where the heavier snow is progged.

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When? starting early Monday AM (like 1 AM), ending by 11AM.

So as has happened this whole winter, Virginia Beach has been in the crosshairs of multiple potential snowstorms where the computer models suggest 1-2-3 ft of snow 4-5 days out, only to have the storm shift position by 50-100 miles by the actual event. That, though, can make all the difference in the world. In this case, there was a lack of cold air around. Normally it would have been in the 20’s and 30’s leading up to a major event like this. But it’s been in the 60’s. There no real cold air around, and the streets have been warmed over the last several days. So the only way to get snow is by what’s called “dynamically cooling” the atmosphere, where it snows so hard that it forces the cold air down from higher altitudes onto us. That is what will happen, but we will drop down from 40 to 32 or 33 degrees, and that’s just not cold enough to make the snow stick quickly. Area just a little further north will drop into the upper 20’s, cold enough to get the snow to stick. The computer models are still churning out blizzard condition for Delaware, MD, PA, NYC, Boston, Rhode Island, and suggesting 2+ feet of snow. But since this is a dynamically cooling event, a lot of that snow will be “lost” to cooling the atmosphere and bringing down the temperature, so you can cut those snow totals by 1/2. Here’s how much can be expected by the computer models, and then in reality.

This from the NAM - generally the best overall model. FYI, all models are generally in agreement. If the temperature was cold enough, up to 26.9 inches could be expected in Massachusetts. The Eastern Shore by get 6-12. The bullseye is the coast of central NJ, around 30 inches. But again, divide by 2, even 3, because of how wet the snow is, and how much snow is wasted on making the air cold enough to even snow in the first place.

If you look at VB, we’re expecting 1-2 inches. I think that’s optimistic even. If anything sticks, it’ll be on trees and grass, but the streets are just too warm. But with city public schools, you just never know.

Forecast from the Wakefield weather office (official NWS):

From the weather service (the technical discussion):

Model consensus continues to agree with a strong upper level trough diving out of the Midwest Saturday night and moving into the Mid- South and the Carolinas Sunday, before transferring
into a strong closed low off the Mid- Atlantic coast Sunday night. A strong surface low pressure will quickly undertake bomb cyclogenesis Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Given the
event is 36 hrs away there still remains quite a bit of model spread. The latest GEFS and CMC ensembles have the center of the low closer to the coast while the Ecmwf has nudged back to the
east. Given there is overall better agreement on a stronger system closer to the coast the Ecmwf looks to be an outlier.  Nonetheless, this system is expected to bring heavy wet snow
across the northeastern half of the area that will bring hazardous travel conditions and near whiteout conditions primarily across the Eastern Shore. Surface temperatures continue to remain on the marginal side but as this system begins to truly takes form cold air is expected to quickly wrap around leading to snow rapidly accumulating. Across Eastern VA snow totals have risen and from the southern peninsula stretching up towards the Northern Neck snow totals are expected to range between 2 to 4” with possibility of isolated higher totals as some models have hinted on better banding across the area. While across the Eastern Shore confidence is extremely
high for much higher snow totals and near white out conditions along the coastline. All model guidance continues to hint on strong banding and heavy rates nearing 2” hr. Snow fall totals
for MD are expected to be between 6 to 9” with higher totals possible while across the VA Eastern Shore 3 to 5”+ are expected. In addition, as the low begins to rapidly deepen the
pressure gradient will tighten allowing for breezy and windy conditions across the area. Across Eastern Va wind gusts could be as high as 35+ mph. While across the Eastern Shore wind gusts
are expected to be near 40-50+mph especially along the coastline. This will bring near white out conditions and perhaps brief Blizzard conditions. If trends continue on a stronger
system Blizzard Warnings will perhaps be needed along the MD Eastern Shore Coastline. The overall confidence for heavy wet accumulating snow hazardous travel conditions is high across
these areas. Therefore a Winter Storm Watch has been issued. While elsewhere snow totals are expected to remain low and most places may see a dusting to 1-2”. Additional winter headlines
maybe needed at a later time.

Please Lucy: don’t move that football! This has happened all year to us.

5.4 inches with the ECWMF: The European model.

An average of models says to expect 6-8 inches.

Check out the low wrapping up nicely, right on the eastern shore, dragging down the cold air (counterclockwise flow).

Perfect position for a classic northeaster here.

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I’ve been watching the models over the last week. First one of them hinted at snowfall, then two, then three…now a few more. The problem was always where’s the cold air coming from, and will the low pressure ride outside the coast (good for us), or up in Virginia (rain for Virginia Beach). There’s no high pressure to send cold air down to us. This is going to be an event where the temperature is around 30-32 degrees. So wet, heavy, big flake type snow. Good for snowball fights and snowmen. We’ll be coming off some warm days so it might not stick at first. But as of today, let me share 3 major models that I track who are all showing the same signature. Mind you, we are 5 days out, but 5 days out is around the time to start blogging about this storm. My blog might change a lot because where the low pressure system sets up is EVERYTHING. 100 miles this way or that way and we get rain or nothing. I’m just saying as of right now, here’s what Monday looks like, according to the major models. This looks like the last chance for snow this winter, so if you’re a Snowbird like me, keep your fingers crossed.

Here’s the technical data — I will be updating daily if possible.

GFS: very most popular American model = 9 inches

UKMET: UK (England’s) best weather model: 6 inches

Canada’s best model: GDPS: 10 inches

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New % Chance of Sticking: 35%

Enough to mess things up: 15% I think we’ll get half an inch and the cars will melt the snow while driving. Temperatures are marginal.

When: Now through 10 pm

Here’s the radar as of 345 pm from Wakefield National Weather Service

And from WTKR 3 which shows where it’s actually hitting the ground

Right now temps are borderline, about 35. That’s why you see green over Norfolk. But temps will drop.

When? Friday night

Start Time? Between 5-11 pm. Can’t pinpoint exact time. There’s an early snow band around 5-7 pm and then a later band around 9-11 pm.

How Much? 0.1 in-0.5 in max. And that’s IF we get snow.

Percent Chance we’ll see snow? 60%

Percent Chance it will cover the roads? 20%

What Would Close? Nothing. It’ll be really cold, and will be around tomorrow, but any cars driving on the road will mash/melt the snow away.

Final warning. Next day or two will be really cold. Like National Weather issuing a Cold Weather Watch which never happens here. Please take this seriously and consider ordering a pizza and watching Netflix. Personal Rec: Beef Just 1 season.

Also make sure you insulate your pipes: Low of 15 degrees Sat night.

...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY...
...EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills as low as 1 above expected. For the High Wind Warning, northwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 3 below possible.
* WHERE...Norfolk/Portsmouth County, and Virginia Beach.
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.   Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,   especially for high profile vehicles.

Living in Virginia Beach means living with weather that can turn on a dime. Most days are uneventful—but when things go sideways, they really go sideways. Snowstorms, hurricanes, coastal lows, and other high-impact meteorological events are the biggest disruptors here, often arriving with uncertainty, mixed messaging, and plenty of noise.

That’s where this newsletter comes in.

I’ll be flagging upcoming weather events that I find interesting, unusual, or concerning—and you’re welcome to ask for my take as well. I’ll share meteorology in a practical, visual way, using charts, maps, and model data to help explain what’s happening and why. You’ll see posts like:

• When will it start snowing?

• How much snow are we likely to get?

• What are the odds of school closures, delays, or rain on a specific day?

Before going any further, it’s important to say this clearly: our local TV broadcast meteorologists have earned their place, and nothing replaces the work of the National Weather Service in Wakefield, Virginia. Their forecasts, warnings, and advisories are the gold standard and should always be your primary source for official guidance.

This newsletter isn’t a replacement for any of that.

What I’m offering here is my interpretation of what the computer models, broadcast meteorologists, and National Weather Service guidance are collectively telling us—filtered through local experience, pattern recognition, and an understanding of how these tools actually behave in Hampton Roads.

I rely on a combination of experience, intuition, and an ever-expanding ecosystem of supercomputer weather models. There are a lot of them now, and choosing which ones to trust—and when—is often harder than reading the output itself. That’s where familiarity with model biases, strengths, weaknesses, and local climatology matters.

I grew up here. I studied meteorology formally, and I’ve followed weather systems my entire life. My goal is to sift through the noise, cut through the hype, and tell you what’s most likely to happen—not what sounds dramatic.

Will I get it wrong sometimes? Absolutely. The atmosphere is a chaotic system with far too many variables to predict perfectly. What I can offer is my best-reasoned guess, grounded in data, experience, and local knowledge.

Stay tuned.

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